THE IMPARTIAL OBSERVER

The Run and Do Not Run Game

Hank Eso

hankeso@aol.com

Sunday 30 May 2010

President Jonathan has a winning hand that only he can play.  He can be the referee, the king maker, and the nation-builder all at the same time.  While the Constitution does not bar him from running in 2011, it does not compel him to run. As I see it, and strictly so in the national interest, the overall cost of Jonathan running outweighs the cost of his not running for the presidency in 2011.  …. My advice to Jonathan; don’t run!

Despite all politics being local, the dynamics that influence if and when one runs for public office at the local, state or national levels, are intensely personal.  This is not to say that outside considerations do not influence such decisions. More often than not, external and non-personal considerations determine if one runs for office or not. It is never an easy choice for any serious-minded person. Forget the fact that in Nigeria, running for public office for running sake, and just to be able to claim that one was a candidate for a particular office, has become a high political art form.

Incidentally, as PDP is finding out in this case, zoning and rotation are not synonymous, though both seem interchangeable. Zoning means a political slot being zoned to a geopolitical region by agreement.  Rotation in the strict sense means that a candidate from one zone cannot consecutively succeed a candidate from that zone, i.e. another northerner cannot succeed late President Umaru Yar’Adua, if power must rotate between northerners and southerners. Hence, power must rotate to the south as it now has.  Whatever the case and regardless of how PDP resolves its internal dynamics dilemma, the proviso of zoning or rotation is not binding on other Nigerian political parties as witnessed in 2007 and will again witness in 2011. 

What matters now is what President Jonathan decides to do, given that he is a beneficiary of the PDP zoning arrangement.  That arrangement is subordinate to the Nigerian Constitution, though some would rather not contemplate that reality.

Egging people to run for office is nothing new. Indeed, in politics, it always sounds enticing to run than not to run.  However, like all things in life, there is a season for everything: a time to run and a time not to run. The clarion call to run elicits different forms of emotive consideration, but the mantra remains the same: Run Jesse Run!  Run Forest run!! Run Obama Run!! Run Goodluck run!!!  Annals of political history are littered with personalities who were urged to run but demurred.  General Colin Powell of the United States is a notable standout.

Those who a prodding President Goodluck Jonathan to run for the office the presidency in 2010,  and want to make the issue a matter a great national debate, are missing the point entirely.  His running or not, is hardly about rights and privileges; it is not about what the Constitution says, which is unambiguous. 

Jonathan running for office hinges on trust. It is about individual and national trust, which at all times should be absolute. Trust is absolute. So too, is integrity! Either you have integrity or you don’t.  Moreover, with the betrayal of trust, the emanating distrust lingers, coloring every future consideration and undertaking. In politics, seeds of distrust have an enormous capacity undo consensus, create restiveness and impede political and developmental progress. It is very divisive and makes politics exceedingly fractious.

In Nigeria’s fifty years of political of independence, it is an open secret that when it comes to politics, two major tribes, the Igbo and Yoruba tribes are very untrusting of each other.  The root of that general distrust lies in a political deal made by two men, Nnamdi Azikiwe, an Igbo, and Obafemi Awolowo, a Yoruba that supposedly went wrong.  That singular fact and the ensuing sense of betrayal of one over the other has beclouded and negatively colored Igbo-Yoruba political, business and general relations for fifty years and will continue.  Nigeria does not need another bad deal that will adversely affect North-South relations for years to come. When element from the north seemingly betrayed the southwest with the annulment of the 1993 presidential elections won by MKO Abiola, the northerners made good in 2009, by orchestrating Olusegun Obasanjo’s emergence. In doing so, they restored breached trust.

As an attentive observer, I have followed with keen interest the sometime erudite and at other times plebian reasoning advanced by Nigerians on this matter. I find several such views salient for the purposes of this piece. The emphasis, where they appear, is mine.

Chief Olu Falae, once a presidential candidate and a seasoned bureaucrat believes Jonathan should not vie for the presidency in 2011 general elections so as to be able to organize credible, free and fair elections for the country.

As attorney and political scion, Adeniran Ogunsanya (Jnr), noted, “Simply put, President Umaru Yar’Adua was elected PDP presidential candidate at the National Convention of the PDP for the 2007 Presidential Election. He is the only Northerner qualified to contest for second term. His inability to contest due to his untimely death cannot be assigned or transferred to another Northern candidate. If this is allowed, then the question is, where then is the rotation?”

Hon. Uche Anya, sees it this way: “The constitution overrides every other law-Article of Association, Bye-laws, Agreements, Memorandum of Association and Memorandum of Understanding. No law is above the Constitution. President Jonathan remains under our Constitution. However, it is the same all over the world. I don’t think anybody is complaining. I am absolutely certain that nobody can complain about the emergence of Jonathan as President. It is absolutely constitutional.”

As Monsignor Matthew Kukah, observed, “Thirdly, and finally, should President Goodluck run next year? Why not? In doing so, he will be taking over the steering of his life from God's hands and will have to foot his own bills. We will then see if he drives better or is richer than God.”

However, from far United States, Maria Otero, U.S. Under-Secretary for Democracy and Global Affairs, has hinted that if President Jonathan decides to contest the forthcoming 2011 Presidential elections, it would not adversely affect Nigeria’s democracy as long as the ‘elections are fair and transparent’ and [that] every vote counts.

The run and don’t game will continue until President Jonathan declares his stand. After all, the declaration of intent is the first act of running or not running for any office. However, Jonathan is in a Catch-22 situation. If he runs, the Constitution will be on his side.  If he decides not to run the Constitution of the PDP and its zoning arrangement will also be on his side. Some people and history may however not forgive him for doing either.

Still, if as President Jonathan has indicated he intends to embark on extensive electoral reform, it follows that he cannot be the judge and the jury or the referee and player simultaneously. He cannot justifiably be a beneficiary of the reform process he has put in place.  Such was Babangida’s folly and undoing. That fact alone calls for him to recuse himself in 2011.  Moreover, there is great merit in the argument that his contesting for the presidency in 2011 would create mutual distrust in the country and perhaps precipitate a crisis. 

There is also a precedent.  President Olusegun Obasanjo, a southerner was on office for eight years. If indeed, the presidency has been zoned to the north, and the only breach or quirk being a force majeure of Yar’Adua’s death; then the presidency should stay in the north for the remainder of the eight years. This is a point well made by the Northern political establishment, and non-northerners who are strict adherents to PDP zoning formula.

President Jonathan has a winning hand that only he can play.  He can be the referee, the kingmaker and the nation-builder all at the same time.  While the Constitution does not bar him from running in 2011, it does not compel him to run. As I see it, and strictly so in the national interest, the overall cost of Jonathan running outweighs the cost of his not running for the presidency in 2011.  

Goodluck Jonathan is already in the books as Nigeria’s president. That is a fact.  In the end, if he serves out the remaining twelve months, he would have served in office longer than General Aguyi Ironsi, General Murtala Muhammed, Chief Ernest Shonekan and General Abdulsalami Abubakar, as a Nigerian head of state.  What would matter most would be the legacy he leaves for Nigeria, which at this point should be peace and stability, as well as a free and fair election in 2011, which would further underpin Nigeria’s democratic credentials.

By not running in 2011, President Jonathan retains the option of being nationally, the lead candidate of choice in 2015, when the presidency rotates back to the south.  My advice to Jonathan: don’t run!

With neither anger nor partiality, until next time, keep the law, stay impartial, and observe closely.

--------

Hank Eso is a columnist for Kwenu.com.  His observations on Nigerian, African and global politics and related issues, has appeared in various print media, journals and internet-based sites.  

© Hank Eso, 30 May 2010.  Email: hankeso@aol.com