Date: 1 February 2010

Ref: Anampol02-cont

Press Release

 Holler Africa! (www.hollerafrica.com)

Opinion Research

We are happy to present the results of our second opinion poll for the February 6, 2010 gubernatorial elections in Anambra state. The survey was based on 9000 likely voters in the state, and was conducted on January 21-23 2010 by a combination of telephone calls and direct interviews across the 21 local government areas of Anambra State.

The survey was conducted in collaboration with the Awka-based ‘Dozie Anambra Professionals’ who helped us to recruit, train and supervise the 100 interviewers used in the survey. The interviewers were employed over three days, and each interview, by telephone or face-to-face, lasted an average of one minute. A marketing company in Nigeria, which does not want to be named, helped us to tabulate the results. We fully paid for the survey.

 The focus of the survey was on ‘likely voters’ in the forthcoming elections. We used two screening questions to determine who qualifies to be a ‘likely voter’:

“Are you of a voting Age?”  (b) “Will you vote in the forthcoming governorship elections in the state”? Answering ‘yes’ to both questions qualifies you to be a ‘likely voter’. The survey did not set out to measure the demographics that support each candidate.

Focus was again on the seven candidates we considered the leading contenders in the first poll (December 23-26, 2009). These candidates are: (Peter Obi (APGA); (Dr Chris Ngige, AC), (Prof Chukwuma Soludo, PDP), Andy Uba (Labour), (Mrs Uche Ekwunife, PPA); (Chief Okey Nwosu, ADC, and (Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu, HDP).

The total support for candidates outside the above seven is extremely small. We have used ‘Others’ to capture this support in relevant instances

The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Sincerely

Jideofor Adibe, PhD, LLM

CEO, Holler Africa!

Publisher, Adonis & Abbey Publishers Ltd.

Soludo Widens Lead, Ngige and Ekwunife Also Record Gains

We asked the respondents:

If the elections were held tomorrow, which of the candidates will you vote for?

 The new poll shows that Professor Chukwuma Soludo, the PDP Governorship candidate, widened his lead by 5% (43% compared to 38% in the December 26-29, 2009 poll). The new poll also shows that Dr Chris Ngige of AC and Mrs Uche Ekwunife of PPA each gained 3% since the last poll.  A possible explanation for the gains recorded by these candidates is the aggressive grassroots campaigns they have mounted since the first poll. Professor Soludo may additionally have benefited from the resolution of most of the legal challenges to his candidacy since our last poll as well as the speculated stepping down of some of the candidates for him.

The new poll also shows that the number of voters who said they would vote for Andy Uba fell sharply from 9% to 5%. A possible explanation for this could be a disappointment that his campaign has failed to effectively take-off - compared to the way he ran his campaign in 2007.

Incumbency appears to be an albatross in the race

A remarkable thing in the second poll is the decline in the number of people who said they would vote for Governor Peter Obi (16% compared to 19% in the first poll). A possible explanation for this decline is that he is the main target of all the candidates in the election. It is not easy for over 20 candidates to put one administration under intense scrutiny in an election year without doing some political damage. For instance, as his political opponents put his administration under intense scrutiny, Governor Obi’s claims that he has been paying workers’ salaries regularly appear to have been effectively challenged when staff of the state’s Water Corporation went on demonstration for not having been paid their salaries for years. Other institutions in the state such as Anambra Broadcasting Corporation and the Judiciary quickly joined in complaining of being owed salary arrears – creating an impression that Governor Obi, contrary to his claims, has been unable to pay workers in the state regularly. Obviously the other political parties are trying to reap a huge political capital out of this as they also appear to be effectively doing with the poor security situation in the state –kidnapping and armed robbery -which they blame on the Governor. Even Obi’s famed prudence in managing the state’s resources appear to have been turned against him as his opponents accuse him of boasting of saving N10bn last year – when workers were being owed salaries and the rate of unemployment in the state had reached unacceptable proportions.  In essence incumbency appears to be an albatross rather than an advantage in this election.

How has our first poll fared?

Despite the understandable controversy that dogged our first poll, it would appear that some of the findings from the poll are either being vindicated by recent events or that some politicians, while publicly condemning the poll are privately embracing its findings. Consider the following:

The elections could be free and fair as suggested by the first poll

Despite the recent reported attack on PDP supporters at Ogidi and the controversy about a lorry carrying INEC materials at Okija, the relative absence of the widely anticipated violence in the campaigns will seem to point a to free and fair election – as found by the first poll. It will be recalled that one of the questions in our first survey was: “Do you think the election will be free and fair?” The poll found that 59.5% of the respondents believed the election would be free and fair compared to 41.5% who thought it would not be free and fair.

The maturity that has attended the campaigns so far and the absence of violence in the campaigns – for which all the candidates deserve praise - could point to free and fair elections.  In fact despite Anambra’s reputation, (or lack of it), the campaign is perhaps one of the most mature, and issues-focused in Nigeria’s political history.  We believe that the state’s reputation could be redeemed overnight if the losing candidates take the current maturity they are exhibiting at the campaigns a step further by congratulating whoever emerges the winner at the elections. Such has never happened in any Governorship or Presidential election in the country’s political history

Some parties seem to be surreptitiously making use of the poll’s findings.

We are happy that the AC, which was critical of the first poll for suggesting that “Professor Soludo is the candidate to beat,” seems to be surreptitiously borrowing from the poll’s findings. The party seems to have re-jigged its manifesto to tap into the voters’ three most important concerns as found by our first poll. It should be recalled that one of the questions asked in the poll was: “What do you consider the most important challenges that will face the new Governor of the state after the elections?” Some 40% of the respondents said ‘kidnapping’, 20% said ‘armed robbery’ while 17% said ‘unemployment’. Apparently the Ngige campaign decided to tap into this finding by re-jigging its campaign promises. It now promises to fight insecurity with job creation (see Anambra: 'We'll fight insecurity with job creation' (ThisDay online, January 11, 2009).  This will appear to be a ‘smart’ way of tapping into the three most important concerns of the voters, as found by our poll.

In the same vein, some of the candidates seem to be working for electoral alliance to strengthen or improve their chances. Our first poll had stated that any successful electoral alliance could change the dynamics of the contest. For instance there were reports that  Dr Vincent Anigbata of NSDP stepped down and declared support for Professor Soludo.  There are also speculations that several of the minor candidates will step down before the elections and declare their support for Soludo. One wonders  if this is  a strategy by Professor Soludo to consolidate his lead – in line with suggestions from our first poll?

Similarly The Nigerian Tribue  of 15 January 2010 reported that five of the candidates in the election were planning to produce a consensus candidate, which they hope would alter the dynamics of the contest (see Fresh hurdles for, Soludo, Obi, Uba and others). One wonders if   the parties said to be working on this alliance – ADC, CPN, PMP, NNPP and UDP, while publicly condemning our first poll secretly believe in its credibility by implementing some of our conclusions without giving us any form of credit?

Regards

Jideofor Adibe, PhD, LLM

CEO, Holler Africa!

Publisher, Adonis & Abbey Publishers Ltd

Email: publisher@adonis-abbey.com